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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.