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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."